STONE COLD FACTS by Ryan "Noder" Patnode

In determining who will be this year's national champion, I blended season stats and NCT history trends. Here is how I came to my conclusion and will help you in picking this year's champion.

Offense

Unarmed led the nation averaging 9.475 runs per game. Las Vegas Wifflers, Hitsom, East County Wiffle Crew, Ball Bustaz and CCX all averaged over 8 runs per game this season.

Pitching and Defense

Doom is the only team to give up less than one run per game. The Ball Bustaz, Golden State Wifflers, Fin Daddy’s, Rookies and Knights also had amazing defensive seasons, only allowing their opponents two or less runs per game. Doom, GSW and Ball Bustaz shut out their opponents 50 or more percent of their games.

Teams able to keep the game close (None of these teams mercy ruled this season)

Ball Bustaz, GSW, Hitsom, Doom, Fin Daddy’s, Vipers, Light’s Out
and Remember the name

Blow out wins

Unarmed lead the way with 18 on the season. Gunners were right behind them with 17. The Knights and Niff each had 16 on the season as well.

Game Experience

EC Wifflebrawlers led the way playing in 12 tournaments this season followed closely by their rivals Gashouse Gorillas with 11 tournaments. No other teams played in 10 or more tournaments this season. EC lead the season series 3-1 over Gashouse. The Ball Bustaz will head into the NCT with the fewest NCQ’s under their belt playing in only two, the fewest among NCT teams.

Winning Games

Two teams will be entering the NCT without a blemish on their record, Ball Bustaz and GSW. Hitsom, Unarmed, Doom, East County Wiffle Crew and Rookies all enter the NCT with .800 or better winning percentages. CCX has the best winning percentage of a team not to win a NCQ this season.

Winning titles

Unarmed enter as the only team to win 4 NCQ’s. GSW, Doom, Rookies and Gunners all enter with 3 titles under their belt. Ball Bustaz, Hitsom, Fin Daddy’s, East County Wiffle Crew and Niff all head to Texas with 2 tournament wins each. Vipers, Knights, A-Team, Running wiff Scissors, Top Gun, Remember the Name and Big Sticks all enter with 1 tournament win. 53% of NCT teams have won at least one tournament this year. Thunder, Rabid Woodpeckers, F-Bombs and Gashouse are the only NCT teams not to play in a NCQ championship game.

History trends

Taking a look at the past winners of FP’s national championship, some interesting trends pop out that will have to be taken into account went predicting my champion for 07.

The past three champions have won 1 or less NCQ’s during the regular season.
Three of the last four champions have won their last tournament before heading to Texas.
The last three champions have been from the northeast.
Three of the last four NCT runner-ups have been from the west coast.
The last three champions have had 3 or less players on the roster.
No national champion has had the word wiffle in their team’s name.
No stat for this one, but there seems to always be a Cinderella that makes it to Sunday.

After compiling all this data here is how I see the NCT shaking out.

Sweet 16

Unarmed- Unarmed had a great regular season leading the nation in many categories. Wins and runs per game to name a few. I think they will have enough to get out of the round robin, but they will be missing part of their pitching staff so the sweet 16 will be where this magical season ends.

NY Knights- All of the Knights can pitch and hit. They still have 2005 MVP and Cy Young Joe Nord. They should be able to pick up 3 wins in the round robin making it to the round of 16.

Vipers- Winners of the 2002 and 2003 National Championship and still have former MVP Jim Balian. The Vipers haven’t been able crack into the top 8 the past two NCT’s. This year they will be able to make a run at it by getting through the round robin, but will fall short of making it to Sunday.

East County Wiffle Crew- An impressive season for the ECWC in their first year in FP. The most impressive had to be the tournament win in LA’s NCQ # 2. Wins over the past two NCT runners up CCX and Gunners should give this team the big game experience to make it through the RR. I thought about picking this team as my Cinderella, but with two tournament titles and big wins over quality teams, this team is too good for me to pick them as my Cinderella, so their season ends in the sweet 16.

Running Wiff Scissors- This could be one of the only teams in the nation that hasn’t added or subtracted any players in the past 3 seasons. Though the team has been up and down this season, the team’s continuity helped them to their first FP title this season. They have a bona fide ace in Kyshan and top hitter in Ace. This should be enough to get this team through the RR.

Top Gun- TG hasn’t had the season they envisioned when this team was formed, but they did have a season saving tournament in the last NE NCQ. I think this team will benefit from the 5 game RR with their pitching depth. This will help them get out of the RR and into the 16, but that’s where the season will end for TG.

CCX- CCX does fit the model that In the box formed in the 2004 and 2005 seasons. Finishing 2nd in the NCT the year before, then in the next season going titleless in the regular season, only to win the NCT that year. CCX would have been a good choice based on history to win it all this year. However with the 5 game RR I think this will taxing on Brunner’s arm preventing this team from making a signature run like last year. I know Bunner can throw all day, but common sense tells me this team will fizz out in the sweet 16.

Ball Bustaz- It’s tough to leave this team out of the final 8 considering they probably have one of the top 5 pitchers in the nation. I think the 5 game RR will affect the Ball Bustaz the same way it will CCX. Ball Bustaz only played a couple of top teams this season, and the lack of seeing quality pitching should stop the Ball Bustaz from returning to the final 8.

Elite 8

F-Bombs- The F-Bombs are my pick for this years Cinderella. They fit the bill of the Cinderell by not winning or even making a championship game this season. The Bombs have the pitching depth with Urquhart, Washington and Bethoney to make it through the RR and should have enough to pull off the big upset in the sweet 16.

Fin Daddy’s- The Fin Daddy’s ended on a hot streak winning 2 of their last 3 tournaments. Unarmed has been this team’s nemesis all year long. As long as they don’t run into them, they should have the pitching and hitting depth to make it to the final 8 for the second year in a row.

Gunners- The Gunners played a lot this season tallying up 34 wins this season, second only to Unarmed. Their high powered offense should allow them to save some of their pitching for the single elimination round. The Gunners ran into a hot Rookies team in last year's round of 16. As long as they can steer clear of them this year, then should be primed to make another run on Sunday.

Doom- Doom has seemed to defy the odds. Doom lost its entire pitching staff from last year, but went out and only strengthened that part of the team by acquiring two rookies to the FP circuit in Troy and Russ. Russ has been as consistent as anybody in the northeast this season, evident in Doom’s season stats. Opponents are averaging less that 1 run per game against Doom this season.

Final 4

Hitsom- Hitsom has only one blemish on their record this season, if you even want to consider it a blemish. The only loss came to the super team of the Armed Rookies, a combination of Scott Bragg and the Rookies. Hitsom even pulled off an impressive tournament winin NJ #2, without the services of their ace Elvin Cortez. Hitsom averaged over 8 runs per game this season so I see this team having no problem making it to Sunday and their second straight final 4.

Rookies- Last years national champion looked primed for another one early this season. Winning three straight tournaments to kick off the season, they have fallen off a bit on their tournament winning ways the past few times out. I think this would be my favorite to win it all, but they just don’t fit the champion model. There hasn’t been a back to back champion in the past 4 seasons. They also didn’t win their last tournament they played, and they have won 3 tournaments this season, too many to be considered for this years title.

Runner Up

Golden State Wifflers- GSW enter the NCT with a perfect 16-0 record. They head to Texas off the heals of their most impressive tournament of the year in SD NCQ # 4. GSW played in some strong tournaments this season and their undefeated record is no joke. The team has it all. Pitching, hitting and experience. GSW will lose their first game in the National Championship game. 24-1 record is quite impressive, and if they didn’t have “wiffle” in their name they could have been a perfect 25-0.

Champions

Niff- This might be a surprise pick, but you got to look at all the signs. Niff won the last tournament they played in. Although they do have more than 1 tournament win this season, in a year without playoffs we will over look this and treat their last tournament as a playoff tournament. Niff only has three on its roster, all residing within the northeast. Niff also as you can see has no mentions of wiffle in their team name, this sounds like a 07 National Championship to me.