ODDS ARE by Underworld Slim

The competitive level of wiffleball has been rising exponentially in the last few years. The amount of players that could throw considerably hard has increased fivefold. Just a few years ago, sinkers used to be a pitch that 95% of the hitters had little chance against; now changeups had to be introduced because handfuls of hitters are keying in so well on tough pitches. The field of 32 teams we have this year is not nearly as watered down as it was in 2005 and 2006.
The handicapping of the NCT needs to be treated like the NCAA March Madness tournament. The challenge presented to each team is to parlay 5 (4 if the team earns a first round bye) consecutive sudden death victories, which will be compounded by the fact that by the 2nd or 3rd elimination game, each team remaining is likely to have an ace capable of shutting out any lineup they face. The odds must reflect these obstacles. As far as the individual teams are concerned, 2007 regular season performance has been taken into account, along with success in past NCTs, and any acquisitions, losses, or matchups that would help or hinder the squads in Texas. Odds will be represented in sportsbook, not racebook style: +750 means 7.5 to 1, +1100 means 11 to 1.

Rookies +450
King in the Castle, King in the Castle. Posted losing records against both 603 and Doom. I don't care. They are the champions and they have the same 3 guys. Last year they went through the NCT tournament with more ease than any other team in recent history. All of their elimination games were decided by two or more runs. Josh Pagano is the real deal, not just on the slab, but with his bat. Evan Lazur is the power source that helps makes this lineup dangerous to work through. The speculation is that Pagano's arm has been overused this season, but he will have a nice layoff before Texas. They may not even be the best regular season team in their region, but this squad is built for single elimination, and they will turn it on when it matters as they did last year. This has to make them the favorite in October.

Hitsom +600
Very impressive performance in the 2007 regular season, with their only loss coming to a superteam collaboration of Scott Bragg and the Rookies. Making a final 4 appearance last year, their championship hopes were stopped by, of course, the Rookies. So, as long as they stay away from that matchup they're in good shape. Elvin Cortez is the ace and eats the lion's share of the meaningful innings for this well-rounded New Jersey group. I'd say it's a good bet we see them playing again in the Elite 8 or Final 4, and their strong efforts this season have to be reflected in the odds. As far as running the table, I'm not ready to sign that petition, because I see good value with a few of the teams listed under them.

GSW +650
Putting the unblemished record at stake in Texas. Billy Owens attempts to "dial it up" in his new uniform, bringing pitching depth (and age) that will be valuable in a two-day quest to this interstate team. However, I would think twice before bringing him in in a bases loaded situation, as we saw from the 2005 DVD. Three of the four swing from the left side of the plate; all four have power. The chances of making mistakes in the hitting zone and getting away with them are low. Solid all around, they still play several close games each year at the NCT, and one of those seems to go against them each year. GSW may lose only one game all year, but if it's an Elite 8 or Final 4 game, that's all it takes to miss out on the prize.

NY Knights +750
The Knights lost Ryan Wood in the offseason, but it seems that teams led by 2005 NCT MVP Joe Nord perform better when consisting of 2 or 3 players anyway. The New Yorkers can beat you with their arms or their bats, and are a team that is in their comfort zone during single elimination, while other teams are making nervous mistakes. 2007 hasn't exactly been a dominant campaign for them, but they will be at their best in Texas, you can count on that. I'm confident this team will be there at crunch time, and taking the crown back from the Rookies is not out of the question. Nord is one of the very few players that I want my money on in the big games, and there might be some line value for that here.

CCX +800
Odds on Ewaldo showing up to texas: +800. This team has underperformed all year, which may mean they'll be healthy and ready for Texas, as weird as that sounds. If the offense isn't clicking, even 1 run can still be enough for CCX with Rob Brunner pitching. Brian Schilz is one of the top bats in the nation, and will be the firepower if the team needs to outscore the opposition. There is no question of the talent on this team, however, keeping focus is always a question with these guys. If Drazen has successful pregame yoga sessions and Brunner gets energized by his gangsta rap during warmups, this team may gain the focus they need to go deep into Sunday again.

Doom +800
Is this team as good as their record? Many players say they aren't, but the mouth of the NE region, Tog, will argue that. Oddsmakers must respect the numbers and assign value to them. Doom has posted winning records against both the Rookies and 603, and that says something. A different team in 2004, they reached the Elite 8, and a comparable or even better showing in '07 is realistic after getting ousted early last year. This squad has to be in front of every NE team in the odds except one. The reasons why I have the Rookies considerably ahead in the power ratings are the same reasons why I believe this team comes up short of the crown: Performance in the clutch and intangibles.

Gunners +850
Odds there is a controversy that makes FP cringe during one of their games: +300. Frequently having a target on their backs for their aggressive and loud style, the Gunners welcome this target, because they are one of the few teams you will find that plays sharper when they are angry. Boasting one of the strongest offenses in wiffle, they managed to lead the NCT in scoring 2 years ago, and were on their way to doing it again last year until Pagano shut them out. A patchy '07 season with mediocre records against ECWC and CCX, they still won the most NCQs in California. The Gunners usually peak in Texas; if they can stay away from that one bad game and keep their money arms fresh, they can regain their '05 finals form.

Unarmed +850
Edging out the Gunners as the top FP3 team, this group is welcoming the layoff before the NCT to rejuvenate their ailing bodies. It turns out that Brandon McElveen is now probable to make the multi-day car trek from Georgia with his teammates. His bat will give this team an extra lift they weren't planning on. Unarmed is led by their 5'6" righty with an awkward delivery, Scott Bragg. One of the marquee hurlers in wiffle, if his workload is minimized by the time they hit the Sweet 16, this spells trouble for all teams that run into UA. Scott also abides by a strict no-swearing policy, so it's ok to have an open mic around. After their first NCT experience fell short in the Round of 32 last year, I am expecting a breakout performance in '07.

Fin Daddys +900
Really flying under the radar in the 2007 season. Last year may have been their big chance, but this Florida team is still a contender. Although they haven't played many games this year, I still expect them to be in NCT form in October. This is a deep squad with both hitting and pitching stars, which gives them the capacity to endure through the long tournament better than almost all other teams. However, going 1-3 against Unarmed while being shut out in each of the 3 losses has to drop them in the power ratings. Be sure to stay away from the Fin Daddy tent come Sunday, because Banjo will be polluting the area with his morning cigarette.

Ball Bustaz +950
A strong and unexpected Elite 8 effort last year has made this Midwest team a contender. Ryan O'Shea is a dominant arm, and will give this team a shot against any opponent. Playing in a region with a limited number of quality teams shouldn't hurt their performance in the NCT; it didn't last year. What will hurt the team's performance is the limited number of 1.67, which is their average RPG scored in the 3 elimination games at the '06 NCT. You need strong pitching to get deep into the tournament, but you need clutch bats that can score off the aces to actually win the tournament. Don't be surprised if the Ballbustaz are playing on Sunday again and don't be surprised if they lose another tough 1 run game.

Top Gun +1100
Leahy brings the game, and Stoop, Boomer, and Deveau bring the pain - in your ears. Started off slow this year, only compiling a 9-8 record through June. Since then, they have gone 12-1, including running the table in New England NCQ #4. It looks like Top Gun may be starting to hit their stride at just the right time. Teams led by the arm of Pat Leahy have a legitimate chance to make at least an Elite 8 appearance, and you may find some decent line value here if you're looking for a team outside of the group of favorites. What I would be worried about with this Northeast crew is that one-run loss on Sunday.

Vipers +1300
The history of the core of this team is undeniable. On paper, the squad is scary. But, you have to respect the trends. After a championship in '03 and a Final 4 appearance in '04, this Arizona team has not broken the Sweet 16 in either of the last 2 years in October. Of course, it would not come as a shock to many if they saw the Vipers playing on Sunday with Jim Balian toeing the rubber. Taking the regular season performance into account, in 4 games against their AZ region counterpart GSW this year, they are winless with a total of 2 runs scored over those contests. This will put a lot of pressure on their ace at the NCT.

East County Wiffle Crew +1600
There are 2 factors favoring this squad. 1)No one outside of the West Coast has a scouting report on them 2)They have 2 southpaws with command of the zone. There is one factor that is not favorable...no NCT experience. This team is solid all the way around and claims a winning record against both the Gunners and CCX this season, but the intensity and grinding of the big tournament will wear on the effectiveness of the lefties. Their bats can keep them in most games, but when the arms lose that extra zip, the end of the line will be close. Sweet 16, good chance. Elite 8, a bit of a stretch.

Niff +1600
Odds of a large crowd gathering around one of their intense nailbiters: +300. Scrappy. Technically, there's no "wow" factor, but everyone does their job. I like the way these guys play, and theres a good chance they upend at least 1 team that's listed above this. I just don't expect them to run the gauntlet of single elimination due to arm exhaustion; there's a higher probability of a heartbreaker under the lights or early morning sun. And, theres also a good chance you'll be able to hear that game from the fields all the way on the opposite side of the complex.

Lights Out +1800
Last year, showing up to the NCT shorthanded may have been a blessing in disguise for Texas this year. Their ace, Nick Tariela, now knows that he has help from Jay T, and will not have to exert nearly as much energy getting the team to single elimination. LO has appeared in the Sweet 16 in both the 2005 and 2006 NCT, and were stumped by a shutout each of those times. Pregame amphetamines may be the answer to get some runs on the board in single elimination.

Running Wiff Scissors +2000
Possessing one of the better team names FP has seen, this squad has taken some by surprise with several strong victories in 2007. They have two shutout wins each over the NY Knights and Thunder this season. They did however post several losses against non-blockbuster teams. I think Sunday is in their reach, but the strength of the arms will be in question when facing the heavy hitting teams that will be remaining.

Thunder +2000
Always a team to fear when Jared LaChance is chucking, as he is one of the quality pitchers that everyone somehow seems to overlook. Ability to hold the opposition down is not a problem for this squad. The offensive firepower is always the anchor that drags them in Texas. The Elite 8 has escaped them from 2004-2006, and in their final game of each of these years, they have scored a total of two runs in the three matches. Not so much.

Remember the Name +2200
They kept saying they would qualify for the NCT, and they lived up to it by taking down the Knights in New York's final NCQ of the season. The Dana brothers can play, and made the Elite 8 as a 2-man team in 2004. Their 2007 performance has shown strength at times, but overall was quite unremarkable. This has to put them slightly below the top half of the field when the odds are concerned.

Las Vegas Wifflers +2500
Playing in a region that was dominated by the Gunners and ECWC may lead some teams to think it's safe to not bring their A-game against these guys, which will be a mistake. When playing at their potential, LV is a formidable competitor. Seeing the night lights shouldn't be a problem, but attrition is not something this team is equipped well for. The arduous NCT will prevent them from achieving their potential.

Big East +3000
Hoping the name change from Kane Park and the addition of Patnode will improve their chances in 2007. In 2005 and 2006 at the NCT, the results were the same. Making the round of 32 with lower-half seeds, they were ousted in the first elimination game. Big East can put some runs on the board, but unless their arms step it up, I see the same result we've grown accustomed to seeing each year.

F-Bombs +3500
Fell short in most games against quality teams, but compiled a 19-12 record while playing in a few strong regions over the course of the season. If they get an easy draw in the pools it's possible they could squeak out a winning record. In a pool that isn't weak, I think you can forget about them advancing to single elimination.

Power Alley +3500
These NCT veterans made it to the Sweet 16 in 2004, but haven't made it past their first elimination game in the past two years. Playing in the shadow of Unarmed in '07, PA failed to win an NCQ during the season thanks to putting up an 0-6 record against their Georgia counterpart. It's possible they could make a showing in the Sweet 16 again this year, but Troup will need some serious help to get past there.

Big Sticks +4000
Sneaking into the tournament with a last minute victory in LA. The crafty veteran Chuck Valle has been battling arm pain the entire year, which is not a good sign when he's the main arm. One thing you can count on is that these guys will battle you. Two of the classiest wiffle competitors, Valle and Chew never quit, so you better close the door when you get the chance.

A-Team +4500
Formerly Stuckeys who made the trip for last season's NCT. The squad came out of the round robin but were shut out in their first sudden death game. They finished 15-6 on the season, but in games against noteworthy teams it was not pretty. They may be an A-Team in Maryland, but in Texas, they're more of a Y-Team.

Dream Police +5000
Making the trip to Texas for the 2nd straight year. They actually earned a mid-range seed last year in the round of 32, but got the prize of facing the Rookies. Dream Police brings championship rings to the table in the person of David Carradine; in the wiffle world he is known as Jim Dalbey. A former member of the Vipers dynasty, he is the humblest player in wiffle.

EC Wifflebrawlers +5000
Now this is a fun team to be around. Going the extra mile and logging 12 NCQ appearances shows the tenacity of this bunch from Jersey. They may score 1 or 2 upsets, but they didn't make it out of their first single elimination game last October, and I don't expect that to change in '07. This team has probably had more fun than any other team with a losing record.

Gashouse Gorillas +5000
Tony Gwynn's batting average is close to this teams winning percentage. Well, they did manage to grind out 88 FP3 points with a 17-27 record; I guess that is pretty impressive. Most of their games against decent teams have been quite competitive, and they have played out of strong regions this year. They're probably better than their record, but still a definitive longshot.

Rabid Woodpeckers +5000
Still unsure whether they will be a two or three-man squad, and their ace Jake Levine is also battling an arm injury. If Agostini shows, it will definitely help the production. Either way, I expect them to be using up all their rabid just to escape round robin, which will make the Peckers tired even if they manage to get through.

Run Factory +5000
These guys score a lot of runs. In Texas, they give up more than a lot of runs. This veteran Florida team will win one of their patented 12-10 games, but when facing a strong team, it's just not going to work anymore. At least their opponents will have the pleasure of listening to the infamous RF boombox while launching balls over the wall.

Slimetime +5500
Led by Brian Davis (aka BD), the team was quite undermanned at nationals last year, and did not make it to single elimination. Don't expect them to log the winning record necessary to advance out of round robin, because the supporting cast is just not strong enough. Personally I think they need to shop for a more non-nickelodeon team name.

Rickel Pickle +6000
A late addition to the NCT field, the Rickel family will be experiencing Texas again. These kids may be the future of wiffle. That would be in about 5 years. For now, their arms still need to mature. I suggest a Bone Daddy's visit for them on Saturday night; nevermind, the majority of the team might not be allowed in that place.

DGA +7500
I'm going to argue that the wind hampers DGA's performance, and the change of scenery from Chicago to the still air of Texas will make a big difference. Are there any Takers? Posted monster victories over ISI Wrestling and Chico Bail Bonds - Great Success!